By Aidan Flynn

Right field is a position that has long been defined by two traits: a power bat and a power arm. All-time greats Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron both called right field home and are two of the greatest home run hitters in the history of the game. Even today, clips of Roberto Clemente throwing runners out from right can be seen on MLB Network reruns. Today is no different, with many of the best players at the position exhibiting both of skills. As for game's current crop of right fielders, it is a bit top heavy, with very little separating the players on our honorable mention list from the last spot on this list. In my opinion, I really feel as though there is a definitive top four with number five being a matter of personal preference.  Even with the lack of top tier talent currently, continued progressions from likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Jason Heyward could once again give right field a couple of the best players in the game. In addition, the tremendous abilities of prospects Wil Myers and Oscar Taveras could further put the limelight back in this corner outfield spot. Fittingly, both of these precocious talents have the prerequisite traits for right field, possessing a rifle arm and a powerful bat, much like our number five right fielder in the game today...

*NOTE: Justin Upton was ranked fifth on this list prior to his trade to the Braves; however, he will be playing left field this upcoming year and therefore is excluded from these rankings. I did discuss Upton as a player in the most recent Behind the Trade, lauding his well balanced skillset but also questioning his massive home/road splits and consistency (or lack thereof). If he would have been traded prior to our left field rankings, he would have been left off the top 5, coming in at my number six slot.

5. Josh Reddick, Oakland A's

Last year, Reddick burst onto the baseball scene, posting a 4.5 win season and was an integral part in Oakland's surprising division title. Acquired as part of Billy Beane's roster overhaul last winter, Reddick showcases a wide range of skills that made him successful not only in 2012, but should continue to make him a valuable player in the years to come. Defensively, Reddick is among the game's elite, posting at least 10 DRS the past two seasons, with an absurd 19 runs saved last year alone. Much of his defensive excellence is owed to his strong throwing arm (check out this impressive throw to nab former 30 SB man, Jason Bourgeois), which was credited with 15 outfield assists last year, good for third most in the entire major leagues. With above-average range and the aforementioned rocket for an arm, Reddick is an absolute weapon in right, especially capable of slowing down runners from moving first to third.

Offensively, Reddick is more of a work in progress, especially compared to his right field peers. Last year, Reddick hit .242/.305/.463 with 32 HRs, 85 RBI, and a 110 OPS+. While they are solid numbers, Reddick lags behind many right fielders who are off this list when using OPS+. Right fielders Torii Hunter (132), Carlos Beltran (128), Nick Swisher (126), and Jay Bruce (118) all have higher OPS+ than Reddick, and all have a longer track record as well. In response to this, I point to evidence that foreshadows possible offensive improvement  as soon as next season. The statistic BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is a useful tool in explaining fluctuations in batting average for a given year, as any extremes from a player's career average usually can be expected to regress to the player's mean. Last year, Reddick had an abnormally low BABIP of .269, below his career BABIP of .277, and well below the league average at around .300. With a simple regression to the mean, it is very reasonable to expect to expect an increase in batting average in 2012. In addition, it is also possible that with Reddick's newfound power (career high 32 HRs, .463), pitchers may pitch him more carefully in 2013. This would result in an uptick in his walk rate and consequently, increase his lackluster OBP (.305) into at least average to slightly above average territory. If Reddick can indeed raise his OBP (aided by a predicted increase in BABIP), and maintain his power and defense, Reddick has a very legitimate case for being the fifth best right fielder in the game today, and one who is very capable of 4+ wins in 2013.

4. Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The crown jewel of the free agent class, Josh Hamilton shocked the baseball world when he signed a 5 year, $125 million contract with his long-time division rival, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Hamilton experienced a tumultuous 2012, with both the highest of highs (MVP level  April/May, owner of just the 16th four HR game in ML history), and the lowest of lows (prolonged summer slump, struggled as Rangers lost division title). Even with his erratic performance, Hamilton still accumulated a well above average line of .285/.354/.577 with 43 home runs and 128 runs batted in. Undoubtedly, when he's on (and healthy), Hamilton is among the best in the game. However, Hamilton's inconsistency, along with his age, injury history, and unfavorable ballpark transition, prevent him from achieving a higher ranking on this list. Additionally, Hamilton's eroding plate discipline saw him have the highest chase rate in the Majors, obviously not a good sign for anybody, let alone someone with the aforementioned red flags. Nick wrote up a good piece on Hamilton back when he first signed with the Angels, explaining many of these very warnings. But I digress, as these lists are supposed to celebrate the player and recognize his talents on the field, not nitpick every fault a player has. Nevertheless, Hamilton is unquestionably is an exceptional talent in the batter's box, and remains one of the biggest offensive threats in the game.  

In addition to acquainting himself with a new team, Hamilton will also have to acquaint himself with a new position. Hamilton, a left and center fielder for most his career, is expected to take over in right for the Halos, completing an all-world defensive outfield trio with Mike Trout and Peter Bourjos. It should be noted that Hamilton has played in right field before, but in limited action (only 70 career games). Hamilton's defensive performances up to this point really have depended on his position. In center field, Hamilton has a career -18 defensive runs saved, clearly below average. However, in the less demanding position of left field, Hamilton is a +12 DRS player, with 14 outfield assists in limited action. Like left field, right field is further down the defensive spectrum than center field, and Hamilton should be similar defensively in right as he was in left. 

Hamilton was only a 3.4 win player in 2012, as his subpar defense in center field really hurt his overall value. I fully expect a defensive improvement in right field, and could be a 4.5+ win player even if his offense doesn't transition flawlessly to Anaheim

3. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves

As one of the more hyped prospects in recent memory, Heyward entered this season with a cloud of disappointment following a poor 2011 campaign. Heyward did more than make up for it in 2012, rebounding with a 5.5 win season, garnering MVP votes and his first career Gold Glove in the process. Certainly one of the more talented  physical specimens in the game today,  Heyward's career revival can be attributed to his power and defensive development. Offensively, hit .269/.335/.479 with 27 home runs and a 117 OPS+, a far cry from his .227/.319/.389 line in 2011. Remember, that Heyward will only be 23 come Opening Day '13, so it is reasonable to expect these numbers to continue to improve as he reaches his prime. Additionally, Heyward impacts the game offensively by being an excellent baserunner, without having typical "burner" speed. This often overlooked, underrated trait, is one way Heyward adds to his overall offensive value without being an absolute masher. For example, Heyward ranked sixth in all of baseball in UBR (Ultimate Base Running), which measures extra bases taken (going 1st to 3rd on a single), not grounding into double plays, stolen base rate, among others (for full list of what UBR measures, click here). Just for comparison sake, Heyward was worth nearly 8 runs on the bases alone in 2012, while only stealing 21 bases; former teammate and documented speedster, Michael Bourn, stole 42 bases, but was only worth 6.6 runs on the bases last year. Although Heyward may be a jack of all trades, master of none on offense, he truly is an elite defender in right.

Not a whole lot can be said about Heyward on defense except that he is the best at his position. Whether you look at Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Range Factor (RF), or even just outfield assists, Heyward ranks #1 every time. Just this past year alone, Heyward saved 20 runs (worth approximately 2 wins) manning right field for the Braves. This isn't just some one year fluke either; Heyward has saved at least 15 runs in every season of his career, with the most DRS and highest UZR over that same time. When you add up Heyward's complete package, he becomes a much more valuable commodity than some may give him credit for. Sure, Heyward needs to cut down on the strikeouts and regain some of his declining walk rate, but at only 23 years of age, he's got some time to figure it out. I think Heyward should only continue to improve with age and could very well surpass his 5.5 WAR in 2013.

2. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays

The ultimate rags-to-riches story in the Major Leagues, Bautista's transformation from minor league journeyman to one of the premier power hitters in the game is nothing short of spectacular. For those that don't remember how bad Bautista was, he was traded for Robinson Diaz back in 2008. Don't know who Robinson Diaz is? Well neither do I, and the Blue Jays got a perennial all-star for a player who has been out of baseball since 2009.  Whereas the player ranked number three on this list, Jason Heyward, didn't possess an extremely visible skill (defense doesn't count unless your name is Ozzie Smith), Bautista does possess such a trait and that is his light-tower power.

Since his break-out season in 2010, no player has hit more home runs than Bautista (124) and ranks second only to Miguel Cabrera in slugging percentage. However, Bautista's offensive prowess doesn't stop with his power, as Bautista exhibits an excellent eye (career 13.5 BB%, 5% better than league average) and doesn't strike out like big-time power hitters usually do. Last year, Bautista was having typical Bautista season until going down with a wrist injury, sustained during this painful at-bat. Even with his shortened campaign, Bautista put up a respectable .241/.358/.527 line that was especially hurt by an abnormally low BABIP of .215. Once this BABIP normalizes, I don't  think it would be too much to expect numbers similar to his previous couple of seasons. Nevertheless, any injury regarding the hands or wrist can be especially troubling and it should be interesting to see how Bautista's health fares this upcoming season.

On defense, Bautista isn't quite the stalwart he is on offense. That isn't meant to be an insult; it is merely a testament to Bautista's incredible hitting ability. Throughout his career, Bautista has hovered around league average, with negative -3 DRS in right field for his career, but has posted positive DRS numbers on several different occasions (including last year). Another note of interest with Bautista is that, in the past, he has split time between third base and right field. This sort of flip-flopping on the diamond could have had an adverse effect on his defensive abilities at the time. Then, perhaps it is not a coincidence that Bautista's defensive ratings have steadily improved as he has moved away permanently from the hot corner. However, as long Bautista continues to rake, I think any defensive showing at all really is just gravy for the Blue Jays. If Bautista maintains his offensive talents and just stays healthy, Bautista could double his 2012 WAR total and be a 6+ win player.

1. Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins

Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Alex Rodriguez, Tony Conigliaro, Frank Robinson, Ted Williams, Bob Horner. This is a list of players who hit at least 90 home runs before they turned 23. There's one name on that list I forgot, and he just happens to be number #1 in our rankings. Giancarlo "Don't call me Mike" Stanton, is right alongside that list of immortals (and Bob Horner) and ranks #1 among right fielders in the game today. Stanton exhibits just about everything you want to see in right fielder, including the best power stroke in the game today. Stanton lead the league in ISO (statistic that subtracts batting average from slugging percentage), slugging percentage (.608), and AB/HR ratio (12.1). However, as great a power hitter as Stanton is, he doesn't fall under the one-dimensional slugger stereotype. Stanton, who, once again, is only 23!, hit .290 and has a career walk rate of 10% (2% better than league average). With the fire sale of the Marlins to the Blue Jays this offseason, Stanton will be the only threat in an otherwise pathetic offense. With that said, Stanton could very well see his walk rate climb even higher, as pitchers try to avoid throwing anything within a mile radius to him. Overall, Stanton's presence is one that is unrivaled in the game today and undoubtedly has one of the foremost offensive skillsets in the game today.

In spite of the reputation that hulking sluggers only have one facet of their game (hitting, more specifically power), Stanton, as previously mentioned, doesn't fall victim to this lazy stereotype. In addition to being able to hit for average and have a good idea at the plate, Stanton brings substantial value on defense as well. Stanton has ranked as a positive defender every year in the Majors, including a +10 DRS rating and a +9 UZR  just last year. Clearly, Stanton has a more well-rounded skillset than might be assumed just by looking at his intimidating physique (6'5", 245 lbs). Heck, Stanton was even recruited to play tight end at USC for Pete Carroll before signing on with the Marlins back in 2007. Stanton is a rare breed of power and defense and could be argued that only Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have more trade value than this precocious 23 year old. Just going back to that initial list, Stanton isn't with company of just all-stars; he's with the company of inner-circle HoFers (once again, except Bob Horner). Add everything up, and Stanton was and is a fairly confident choice as the best right fielder in the game today.

If I do have any qualms with Stanton, it is that he has a high strikeout rate and small, yet noticeable, injury history. Stanton struck out a 143 times last year as he also battled knee inflammation that required surgery in early July. I do think these are some things to be aware of for Stanton in the coming years. However, as I said before, Stanton has it all: an all-around skillset, the legendary company, and the god-given talent. Stanton missed close to 40 games in 2012 with the aforementioned knee injury, but still put up over 5 WAR. If healthy, Stanton could very well be in the mix for the NL MVP, with a good shot at putting up over 7 WAR.

Honorable Mention:

*NOTE: As you can see, there are plenty of players with whom I wrestled with for the last slot on my list. As I said earlier, I don't think there really isn't a wrong choice here and is a matter of personal preference.

Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals

Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians

Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds

Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers

 Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox

By: Aidan Flynn         

Finally! Finally! The general public is finally pardoned from hearing another Justin Upton trade rumor (at least for the near future), as Upton was mercifully traded to the Atlanta Braves on Thursday morning. Upton, 25, will join big brother, B.J. Upton, 28, in an already extremely talented Atlanta outfield in hopes of achieving another playoff berth. In exchange for the services of Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson, the Arizona Diamondbacks acquired 3B/LF Martin Prado, and minor leaguers Randall Delgado, Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed, and Brandon Drury.

                The obvious headliner in this trade is Upton, an incredibly gifted, yet enigmatic and inconsistent player who is coming off a disappointing 2012 in which he only hit .280/.355/.430 and put up an underwhelming 2.1 WAR. However, Upton has also shown the ability to do great things, and at times, has lived up to the ceiling that made him a number one overall pick in a loaded 2005 draft class. Just one year ago, with the same trade rumors swirling about, Upton was  coming off a career year, in which he finished fourth in the NL MVP and had an excellent .289/.369/.529 line. Keep in mind, Upton produced this career year at 24 years of age; one would rightfully assume that he would only continue to improve as he matured both physically and as a ballplayer. Instead, here we are one year, later, wondering what kind of player he really is and what the Braves are getting.

                Looking at Upton's career numbers, he is owner to some interesting trends. First is his affinity for alternating successful seasons with lackluster seasons sandwiched in between. Just using OPS+ to demonstrate, Upton's full seasons (with his age in parenthesis) look like this:

 2008: 107 OPS+ (20)

2009: 129 OPS+ (21)

2010: 110 OPS+ (22)

2011: 141 OPS+ (23)

2012: 107 OPS+ (24)

                Clearly, Upton has an interesting little trend going on here but honestly seems purely coincidental as I could not find anything explaining this oddity. Nevertheless, it could very well portend good things for Upton this upcoming season. The other interesting quirk with Upton is much more definite and serious than the previous example, as it is one that could very well have an impactful difference on his future performance. That quirk is that Upton has quite noticeable home/road splits, and going from hitter haven Chase Field to more neutral Turner Field certainly shouldn't help his cause. In the desert, Upton has hit a red-hot .307/.389/.548; on the other hand, away from his friendly home park, Upton has hit only .250/.307/.406 and is undoubtedly a below-average hitter. This obviously is a huge cause for concern, and one that should clearly be watched as the season progresses. This is not a definitive declaration that Upton can't hit away from home. In fact, there are a decent number of examples that have transitioned very well after leaving friendly home parks and going to pitcher's parks (Carlos Quentin is a good, recent example). Furthermore, Upton faced a slew of extremely tough pitchers parks while playing in the NL West (see AT&T Park, Petco Park, and Dodger Stadium), all of which probably helped skew his aforementioned poor road performance. Just as things usually aren't as extreme as they first appear to be, I would figure Upton's 2013 performance will fall somewhere between his home/road splits; the law of averages eventually have to give in. One final note with Upton is that he will probably play left field in deference to Gold Glove right fielder Jason Heyward. Upton's defense in right has been slightly above average for his career, always with at least a positive DRS rating but never more than 8 runs saved in a season. Thus, a move to left could result in an even stronger defensive performance considering that left field is an easier position to field.

                As for the return package for Upton, it is quite underwhelming in my opinion. My favorite player going to the desert is utility man Martin Prado, at the heels of a 5+ win season for Fredi Gonzalez's Braves. Prado is an extremely well rounded player, one that can hit for average (career .295 hitter), has excellent gap power (career high 42 2B last year), play solid defense (18 DRS last year), and can even run a bit (17 SBs in 2012). Prado is expected to play third base for the Snakes this upcoming year and is a +23 run defender at the hot corner for his career. One catch with Prado is that he is only under contract for one year. Upton, on the other hand, has another three years of extremely affordable club control (only $38 million due over that time). If the Snakes can't resign Prado, they take an already disappointing haul and make it an even harder pill to swallow. Essentially, if Prado walks, the Snakes are stuck with a back end starter in Randall Delgado and three fringy prospects that have miniscule big league chances. Speaking of the prospects in the trade, the only one of real note is Randall Delgado. Delgado possesses a low 90's fastball and a decent curve, both of which inducing plenty of ground balls (50 % last year). Delgado still faces control issues, as evidenced by below average 4.1 BB/9 rate; if he cleans this up he could be a solid mid-rotation starter; if not, he should fit nicely into the back end of the starting rotation.

First Impressions:

Winner: Braves

Upton clearly has his faults and remains a ways away from reaching his ceiling-less potential. With that said, Upton remains a very good player, one capable of playing on both sides of the ball and is still to reach his physical prime as a player. Even if Upton doesn't maximize his talents, the Braves did not give up much in return. I think at the very least, Upton and Prado cancel each other out and the Braves remain a playoff team while getting younger and more cost efficient in the process. At the very best, Upton matures into a perennial all-star candidate and closes the gap between the Braves and baseball's best team, the Nationals. In addition, one cannot overrule the change of scenery needed by Upton following the continuous trade talks. Overall, barring a complete collapse for Upton, I see this turning out well in Atlanta's favor.

Loser: Diamondbacks

A situation handled poorly from the start, the Diamondbacks finally rid themselves of the perpetual Upton trade rumor headache. Maybe the Diamondbacks had to deal Upton. They severed relations with him so badly it just had to be done. However, from a purely baseball standpoint, I don't think the package received was one worthy of Upton's talents. Although Prado is a very good player, he is only under contract for one year, and the rest of the prospect pieces honestly just are not very impressive. A player with Upton's current ability, future potential, and cost-controlled affordability should bring in a package better than the one received today. Five years from now, maybe Prado resigns and the prospects contribute at the big league level. However, I am highly skeptical of the prospects and wonder what the benefits of acquiring an older player with contractual uncertainty are. To me, the Diamondbacks are a clear loser in this trade.

By: Aidan Flynn

By: Aidan Flynn
    
     Unlike the speed needed in center or a strong arm in right, left field is usually considered the easiest outfield position to field, and thus often is  littered with talented hitters that just aren't up to snuff defensively. However nowadays, left field is not just reserved for large sluggers, as numerous athletes have begun to call left field their positional home; although admittedly these players usually play left in deference to even more athletic  center fielder (something we will later see in our rankings). For some, this  athletic ability has made them bona-fide stars, capable of not only hitting a  baseball a long way, but also making an impact on defense as well. The talent  crop of left fielders right now is truly amazing and this list was extremely  difficult to select because of so many compelling candidates. With that being said, on to the fifth best left fielder in the game today...


5. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
             
      Faced with arguably the highest expectations for any player in big league  history, Harper, at the tender age of 19, matched and surpassed those expectations in his rookie season. Harper, after underwhelming stays in AA Hagerstown and AAA Syracuse was called up for good on April 28, and never looked back. He hit .270/.340/.477 and smashed 22 home runs en route to winning the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year. Like his ROY counterpart in the American League, Harper possesses a wide range of skills that should continue to make him successful in the coming years. He has burgeoning power (57 XBH), a healthy approach at the plate (9.4 BB%), and strong defensive skills (14 DRS, 10 runs above average ). Harper is still coming into his own as a player, and at 20 years old, is still way ahead of the learning curve compared to his comparatively aged peers. After spending much of 2012 in center and right field, the Nationals' offseason acquisition of Denard Span will move Harper to left, thus his appearance in these rankings. At the heels of a 5 win professional debut, Harper could once again be around that number in 2013 as he continues to grow and mature as a player. 
 
4. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
             
      Drafted out of Nebraska as a third baseman, Gordon was immediately hailed as the next George Brett when the Royals selected him second overall in 2005. Blessed with plus-plus power and gifted line drive stroke, Gordon was the can't miss prospect of his time. But cursed as only a Royal would have it, Gordon fell flat on his face, and was demoted twice to AAA before resurfacing with the big league club as a left fielder. Since that positional change, Gordon experienced a revival of sorts, becoming a legitimate star caliber player. Although never being very good defensively at third, Gordon has evolved into one of the best defensive left fielders in the game with 44 DRS and Gold Gloves in each of the  past two years. Much of his defensive prowess comes courtesy of his rifle for an arm, throwing out the most base runners among outfielders the past two seasons. 
          
     Offensively, Gordon is no slouch either, despite not quite living up to enormous potential out of college. He has the classic underappreciated offensive skillset, revolved around taking plenty of walks and hitting plenty of doubles (lead all of baseball with 51 2Bs in 2012). One cause for concern is whether or not Gordon and his elevated BABIPs are for real or not. League average BABIP is around .300, although higher totals can be seen with fast players (Ichiro) or those that hit a ton of line drives (Miguel Cabrera). Gordon's line drive stroke could explain his extremely high BABIPs of the past two seasons (.358 and .356, respectively), but it remains unlikely that these numbers are sustainable. Even if Gordon were to see his batting average decline due to a BABIP regression, he still has the tools to be a very productive player, and one very capable of being a 5+ win player in 2013. 
 
3. Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals

     One of the most gifted offensive talents in the game, Holliday was once again a key component in the middle of the best NL offense in 2012. In 2012, he hit .295/.379/.497 with 27 home runs, a 138 OPS+, and 102 runs batted in. Holliday's offensive consistency is really quite remarkable; since 2006 (first full season) Holliday has averaged 28 home runs, 104 RBI, a 143 OPS+, and a .316/.393/.544 triple slash line. Predictably, I would expect Holliday to be around those numbers once again in 2013. In contrast to his natural hitting  ability, Holliday is quite unnatural in the outfield. He is a career -10 defender and was -6 runs last year alone, and just lacks the range necessary to be even an average defender. If there is a positive from Holliday's defensive game, it comes from his strong arm, responsible for an average of six outfield assists per year. Holliday is the prototypical left fielder; a masher first, and defender second. Although it is always more favorable to have a more balanced
game, Holliday makes it work due to his excellent offensive skills and consistency and should once again be around five wins in 2013.
 
2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
             
      Braun entered the 2012 season amidst a cloud of controversy regarding his positive steroid test and subsequent successful appeal. With fans and baseball enthusiasts seriously questioning the validity of his MVP-winning 2011, Braun answered with an equally strong 2012 season. In fact, Braun posted nearly identical offensive numbers with the only noticeable difference in his home run total (41 in 2012 to 33 in 2011). Comparatively, Braun hit .319/.391/.595 with an OPS+ of 159 last year in contrast to his .332/.397/.597 and 166 OPS+ in 2011. What is especially exciting for a player like Braun is seeing how he has evolved and matured as a player since first arriving to the big league stage. This is evidenced in his walk rate (5.9% in 2007 to 9.3% in 2012), K rate (22.8% to 18.9%) and his still improving power (career high in home runs in 2012). Clearly, Braun has matured as a hitter and his overall offensive skillset is among the Major League elite. 
             
      Also, unlike most sluggers, Braun has a presence of speed in his game. Despite not having the reputation as a burner, Braun has developed an innate ability to steal bases, swiping at least 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. This added facet to his game is just another way in which Braun can impact games. In addition, Braun has grown as a defender as well. After playing out his rookie season at the hot corner (where he was absolutely atrocious; league-leading 26 errors, -3.0 dWAR), Braun has transitioned nicely to left where he has posted positive DRS numbers in each of the last three seasons. Braun's evolution from slugger to all-around machine has been phenomenal as he has undoubtedly cemented himself as one of the game's very best. Given Braun's consistency and overall track record, he could very easily be in the MVP race again with a 7+ win season. When first working on these positional rankings, Braun had been ranked as the unanimous best player at his position. However, a recent position switch by an even greater player caused Braun to be bumped from top positional honors.

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
             
      I'm just going to go right out and say it: I think Trout is the best player in baseball and will be for years to come. I realize he's 21; I realize he's only had one full season; I realize he wasn't even the best player in his league (or at least according to a bunch of obsolete writers). I don't care. No player in the sport today has more impact on a game than Trout. He is the embodiment of a five tool talent and can truly do it all. 
            
      To those that may be surprised to see Trout's name in left field after  playing much of his rookie campaign in center, get used to it. Angels management announced earlier this offseason that Trout will shift to left in deference to defensive whiz Peter Bourjos, who equals, if not outright surpasses, Trout's defensive talents. This is not so much as a knock on Trout as  it is extremely high praise for Bourjos, who has put up some of the best defensive metrics  of all-time. Even with Trout saving 21 runs and having a 2.1 dWAR last year, the decision to move him to left is certainly justifiable with Bourjos' presence in center and could actually have a long term beneficial impact on Trout's career. A move to left earlier in his career could save Trout some of the wear and tear that comes with the territory in center, and thus keep his promising talents on the field more often. 
         
      As previously mentioned and as you undoubtedly already know, Trout's on-field success is not limited to the grass. Trout was one of the best hitters in 2012 and one could even reasonably make the case that his offensive contributions were greater than that of Triple Crown champ Miguel Cabrera. He was that good. He hit for average (.326), he got on base (.399), and hit for power, evidenced by his 30 home runs and .564 slugging percentage. Limitations of the RBI statistic aside, Trout drove in an impressive 83 runs; something of which I find all the more impressive considering where he bats in the lineup and the fact that he missed 20 games while destroying Triple-A pitching. Furthermore, he did most of this damage playing in pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium, as seen in his league leading OPS+ of 171, a statistic that accounts for these ballpark effects. 
             
      In addition to Trout's natural hitting ability, he can make numerous offensive contributions with his legs. The old saying goes "speed kills," and Mike Trout certainly lives up to that statement by killing other teams on the bases.  In 2012, Trout used his speed to steal a league-leading 49 bases. What makes this even more impressive is Trout's extreme efficiency on the bases; he had a 91% success rate, which was good enough for third among players with at least 30 steals. Also, Trout's speed and instincts allowed him to be the Major League leader in the Ultimate Base Running statistic, which valued his baserunning at an incredible 12 runs! 
 
      Last year, Trout was the game's best player, compiling a mind-numbing 10.7 win season. To put that in perspective, only thirteen players have ever reached this total. Their names: Ruth, Bonds, Hornsby, Yastrzemski, Gehrig, Ripken, Wagner, Cobb, Mantle, Mays, Morgan, Williams, and Musial. These are the all-time greats of the game we are talking about, and Trout's 2012 is firmly in their company. Although this certainly underscores the greatness in his rookie campaign, this forebodes almost certain regression; there literally is nowhere to go but down for him. If there is a red flag in Trout's game, it is that he had a ridiculous .383 BABIP. This number is nearly impossible to sustain, even with Trout's speed skillset and high BABIP track record. It is very plausible for Trout to lose 30 points of that BABIP and instead of being a .330 hitter, he would be closer to a .300 hitter. But then again, with another year of experience under his belt and the fact that he's Mike Freakin' Trout, maybe he will exceed his already lofty expectations. Regardless, Trout is an unbelievable, once-in-generation talent and player where all the superlatives truly do apply. When 2013 is all said and done, I see Trout completing another MVP-esque season with a 8+ win season.

For those that might have forgotten Trout's greatness, I hope the .gif below refreshes your memory

 By: Aidan Flynn          

          Yesterday, I unveiled my thoughts and hypothetical vote on this year's Hall of Fame class. Once again, I do not think there is necessarily a wrong way of going about this vote. However, I do think people need to realize that cheating is not some new trend in baseball, and has literally been going on for hundreds of years. I respect the decisions made by the hundreds of people who vote on this, but any explanation of being a moral gatekeeper is one I simply do not understand. Regardless, I have confidence in my selections and people can say what they will about them. Yet, while I think I selected deserving candidates,  there were many strong cases from players who did not make my top nine. Below are some of my snubs, per say, for this year's Hall class. Some decisions were easy, some were difficult, and if there is any player (Dale Murphy, Bernie Williams, etc) not listed below and you would like an explanation, I would be more than happy to justify my thinking. Once more, I will be using Jay Jaffe's excellent JAWS statistic that compares players to their already enshrined Hall of Fame peers. This was an excellent tool, which along with others, helped me formulate decisions on my Hall of Fame ballot. Below is a quick review on the JAWS statistic, followed by my Hall of Fame slights. 

            JAWS: The Jaffe WAR Score System was developed by Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe as a measure of a player's Hall of Fame worthiness. A JAWS score is calculated from taking the players' career WAR averaged out with their seven-year peak (seven best seasons, regardless if they were continuous or not). It serves as a good means to judge how a player stacks up to his Hall of Fame brethren and whether or not they are deserving of a plaque in Cooperstown. For additional JAWS information, click on the link above

So now, here are those that fell short of my HOF vote (from easiest decision to hardest):

        Jack Morris: Despite the mounting tidal wave of support in favor of Morris' candidacy, Jack Morris is not a Hall of Famer in my mind. To be honest, it is not even that tough of a decision. The 3.90 ERA, barely above-average ERA+ (105), the lack of a statistical peak, Morris just does not cut it. The best thing going for Morris is his longevity and innings eating capabilities (3824 innings) but there are plenty of other, more successful pitchers with nearly identical innings pitched. No one is clamoring for Jerry Koosman or Dennis Martinez's induction, despite both having thrown more innings and having better ERA+ (106 and 110, respectively) than  Morris. Also, Morris falls short in the traditional measures of 300 wins (254 career victories) and winning a Cy Young (best finish was 3rd), in which both puzzle me as to why he is getting as much support from the mainstream media as he is. In addition, for someone with the reputation of being a big game pitcher, Morris was very inconsistent during his postseason tenure. While he was lights out in 1984 and 1991 (sub 2.00 ERA in both postseasons), he had a couple of clunkers in 1987 and 1992 (6.75 ERA or greater in both series). All together, he finished his postseason career with a mediocre 3.80 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Morris falls 20 WAR short of the starting pitcher JAWS average, and after looking at the all of the evidence, he falls well short of my hypothetical HOF vote. 

        Sammy Sosa: First question obviously is, "If you voted for Bonds and Clemens, why not Sosa?" Although Sosa definitely had the peak of a Hall of Famer, Sosa fails to get my vote for several reasons. First, Sosa simply does not meet the Hall of Fame standards set by the JAWS statistic. Sosa falls 7 WAR short of the average Hall of Fame right fielder. Basically, Sosa would lower the standards of the Hall for right fielders if he were to get elected and essentially represents a borderline candidate. While I expressed that I would vote for certain players with steroid ties, Sosa's already borderline case definitely is not helped by being an alleged juicer. Furthermore, Sosa was essentially a one-dimensional slugger during his peak years. He hit a lot of home runs and struck out a ton. For much of his career he was Adam Dunn, just without the walks and with better power numbers. Nobody is confusing Adam Dunn for a Hall of Famer and while Sosa certainly is better than "The Donkey," he is not a Hall of Famer either.

        Mark McGwire/Rafael Palmeiro: I am lumping McGwire and Palmeiro together because there cases are fairly similar. Both offense first players with clear evidence linking them to steroid use; McGwire via personal confession and Palmeiro via a positive test in 2005, just two weeks after recording his 3,000 hit. They are also similar in that both fall short of the JAWS standard for first baseman. The average Hall of Fame first basemen has a JAWS of 51.5 with Palmeiro just below the standard at 51.3 and McGwire at 49.4. Once again, both of these players have borderline cases to being HOFers and with direct evidence linking them to steroids, that clinches them to being off my ballot

        Kenny Lofton: One of the more underrated players of his generation, Lofton stole bases at a high clip (80% success rate), was an excellent tablesetter (.372 OBP), and played strong defense at an up-the-middle position (four gold gloves, 115 runs above average). However, Lofton's lack of a true peak and his lackluster postseason showing (.247/.315/.352) both hurt his borderline case, causing him to fall short of my vote.

        Larry Walker: Unlike the previously mentioned borderline candidates, Walker is actually above the standard for Hall of Famers at his position. Walker certainly had the peak (43.1 WAR, three batting titles, 1997 MVP), but the era and ballpark in which he played (steroid era and pre-humidor Coors Field) absolutely supported some of the insane numbers he put up in the late '90s. I understand there was more to Walker's game than just hitting (7 Gold Gloves, 230 SBs) and he had some very productive seasons in Montreal, but I really question how much of his monster seasons were as a result of playing in Coors. He's close but for now, Walker does not get my vote.

  BY: AIDAN FLYNN

            The mission statement of the National Baseball Hall of Fame reads "Preserving History, Honoring Excellence, and Connecting Generations." Since its inception in 1936, the Hall of Fame has generally received the reputation of upholding these duties while maintaining its integrity as both an honor and museum. This year's class is the first to truly challenge this longstanding reputation with the introduction of all-time greats Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa to the ballot. Under normal circumstances, this ballot would be received with unparalleled interest and significance, not because of any moral wrongdoings, but because of the legitimate greatness of the players involved. The all-time home run king with an unprecedented 7 MVPs. A 354 game winner with a record 7 Cy Youngs. The only player in Major League history to hit sixty home runs an incredible three times. Under normal circumstances, there would be little doubt to greatness that would be honored in a quiet upstate New York town in late July.

            However, as you well know, this ballot does not follow the same rules as ones in years past. The Steroid Era that consumed much of the game in the late '90s is once again rearing its ugly head in the form of the suspicious acts committed by Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa. Although the topic of steroids and the Hall of Fame is not a new topic (see Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro), this year represents a complex dilemma with so many different aspects to it.  One such aspect is the fact that little tangible evidence directly implicates the aforementioned cases of Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa as well as first-time ballot mate Mike Piazza. Even evidence that is present comes from untrustworthy and discredited eye-witness accounts or is just based on visible changes in the physique of these players (see Bonds' transformation above). In addition, these players were allegedly using during a time in which drug and PED abuse was rampant. I would be lying to say or think that everybody was using during this time period but going by numerous reports, it was pretty clear that a decent amount of players were indeed using. Lastly, this ballot simply is different because of the names headlining the list, especially Bonds and Clemens. Between the two of them, reasonable cases could be made that they are the greatest hitter and pitcher of all-time, respectively. To some, not honoring this greatness, regardless of their transgressions, would be a failure for the Hall to "Preserve History, Honor Excellence, and Connect Generations."

            Since its birth shortly after the Civil War, baseball has been ingrained as America's Pastime. As society is seemingly ever changing, ever evolving, baseball remains the constant in the everyman's life. Baseball is what connects generations, families, and us as a country to our storied past and history. The game remains nine innings, with three outs to each half-inning. It remains ninety feet to each base and still is played with a stick and a ball. These enduring qualities and traditions are what has caused baseball to leave such an indelible mark on this country's heart and soul. As football continues its crusade toward the ubiquitous process of player pampering (consequently stripping the game of what made it so popular), baseball's most radical changes have been an extra hitter and a tiny increase in technology. So much of the game remains the same from when Alexander Cartwright wrote up its first rules in 1845. Which should make it no surprise then, that cheating isn't some new fad to the game either. The first documented use of performance-enhancing drugs was in 1889! with Pud Galvin openly admitting and boasting to his monkey testosterone usage. Of course, it was only fitting that Galvin, a 365 game winner, would later be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1965. Hall of Famer Whitey Ford, ace of the perennial Yankee powerhouses of the '50s and '60s was quoted as saying:

"I didn't begin cheating until late in my career, when I needed something to help me survive. I didn't cheat when I won the twenty-five games in 1961. I don't want anybody to get any ideas and take my Cy Young Award away. And I didn't cheat in 1963 when I won twenty-four games. Well, maybe a little"

Hall of Fame manager Leo Durocher also was quite open in regards to his law-breaking:

" I believe in rules. Sure I do. If there weren't any rules, how could you break them?"

"Win any way you can as long as you can get away with it."

            Still not enough? How about the fact that Gaylord Perry carved an entire Hall of Fame career off the illegal "spitball" pitch, in which he would doctor the baseball in order to give the ball unnatural movement? Even after being caught red-handed by umpires during an August game in 1982, the writers eventually enshrined him as one of Cooperstown's immortals. Perhaps Willie Mays wasn't a cheater despite being renowned for sign-stealing and using it to his advantage. Perhaps it was okay to cheat for George Brett because of his hilarious tirade following his ejection for too much pine tar. I am not saying that none of these players belong in the Hall, but clearly, cheating has been in baseball as long as the game itself.

            In my opinion, it would just be flat-out hypocritical for us to give a damn now about cheaters in the game, especially now that the writers voting on this were the very ones reporting in the very same locker rooms in which these players were using. These very reporters and writers, the ones who happened to turn a blind eye to steroids when they were selling papers and bestselling books, are now deciding to be the morality police? I am just continually stunned by these media double-standards. Now, that is not to say that I am condoning the actions of these players and it was something I legitimately took into account for my hypothetical ballot. I hate awarding players for something they more than likely do not deserve, especially considering all the work I put into studying, training, etc to better myself as a student, athlete, and individual. However, I also believe in trying to gain an advantage at something so that as an individual, you can best set up yourself and your family for life, even with the risk considered. Considering the fact that these players were not tested or even questioned about drug abuse during the '90s, why would what they were doing be considered wrong at the time?

            One more thing about baseball is that it is often referred as a direct reflection of American society. If we truly look at baseball as a mirror, is it really too far off of where we stand as a society? Instead of wondering what influence these players have on society, maybe we should look in the mirror and realize our own faults before criticizing someone else's. The influence that these PED users have on future generations really is not any different than the ones we as a society. I just don't think arguments like this are legitimate roadblocks to each candidcacy.

            All things considered, I still honestly do not think there is a right or wrong choice in regards to this Hall of Fame vote. Some people will value some things more than others and there is nothing wrong with that. I just think people need to realize that it is not as cut and dry, (clean or dirty) as it may first seem. Anyhow, after reviewing all of the evidence, below is my ballot, with a brief introduction of JAWS, a statistic necessary to understanding some of my HOF arguments. 

JAWS: The Jaffe WAR Score System was developed by Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe as a measure of a player's Hall of Fame worthiness. A JAWS score is calculated from taking the players' career WAR averaged out with their seven-year peak (seven best seasons, regardless if they were continuous or not). It serves as a good means to judge how a player stacks up to his Hall of Fame brethren and whether or not they are deserving of a plaque in Cooperstown. For additional JAWS information, click on the link above. So without further adieu, my HOF ballot would read…

Jeff Bagwell: One of the most productive first baseman in Major League history, there was little Bagwell could not do. Offensively, Bagwell was an absolute monster. He was a career .297/.408/.540 hitter while playing much of his career in the unfriendly Astrodome. He won the MVP in 1994 and has the fifth highest peak among 1st baseman, ahead of HOFers Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, and Eddie Murray. JAWS has him as the sixth greatest first baseman OF ALL-TIME. Additionally, Bagwell was an underrated defender that ended up 59 runs above average according to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), a number one might not think possible given his physique. Despite his relatively short career (only 15 years), Bagwell's extreme durability (142+ games in 12 of 15 seasons) helped him put up some of the best numbers ever by a first baseman. Despite the whispers regarding his use, the complete lack of evidence gives me no reason not to vote for him. He might not have the shiny 500 home runs (449 career) or .300 average (.297), but Bagwell's overall numbers make him a slam-dunk Hall of Famer in my mind.

Craig Biggio: The other member of Houston's "Killer B's," Biggio was a great player without having any of the "obvious" skills usually attributed to a Hall of Famer. He didn't have light-tower power (291 HR), blazing speed (414 SB or 24 per year), or superb contact skills (.281 career hitter), but Biggio carved out a career as a master of the little things that win ballgames. Biggio hit plenty of doubles (668, 5th most all-time), took his walks (1160), was efficient on the bases (77 % SB success rate), and  played good defense at key up-the-middle positions. The father of sabermetrics, Bill James, even went as far to say that Craig Biggio was the fifth best second baseman of all-time. I might not go as far to say that Biggio was that good, but his overall body of work speaks for itself. Even not considering his 3,060 hits, a landmark number in which Biggio probably stayed too long to obtain, Biggio is without a doubt a Hall of Famer.

Barry Bonds: Strip away Bonds' steroid suspicions and Bonds is clearly one of the two or three greatest players to ever step on the diamond. Bonds' numbers speak for themselves; 762 home runs, 1996 RBI, a .444 on-base percentage, a .607 slugging percentage, 7 MVPs, 8 Gold Gloves, and 158 career Wins Above Replacement (2nd highest career total). The list of Bonds' accolades literally goes on and on and on. I'll admit, it is extremely troubling to see Bonds hit 73 home runs as a 36 year old, while outpacing his previous career high by 24 in the process. It is extremely troubling to see a 39 year old to have a .609 on base percentage and .812 slugging percentage when a player's bat speed and eye should be slowing. It is extremely troubling to see Bonds win two batting titles after the age of 37. I cannot express enough how much I have wrestled with Bonds' and Clemens' Hall of Fame candidacy. It pains me to think that I am rewarding cheating and that Bonds gained such an unfair advantage in his late 30's. However, Bonds' candidacy is just too great for me for me personally. The goal of the Hall is to "Preserve History, Honor Excellence, and Connect Generations." What kind of Hall would it be without having one of the greatest individual talents of all-time? Ultimately, Bonds' legacy and talents outweigh the steroid allegations, and would get my Hall of Fame vote. 

Roger Clemens: As with Bonds, Roger Clemens, minus the PED cloud, is among the greats at his position. Clemens is among the all-time greats in wins (354), Win Probability Added (1st all-time), ERA+ (143), and strikeouts (4,672 K's, 3rd all-time). Clemens' case would normally be clear-cut but will almost certainly not see a first-ballot induction due to his alleged steroid use. Pretty much the same argument for Bonds, Clemens' career record as an all-time great, even with the steroid ties, would be good enough to get my vote.

Edgar Martinez: As the greatest true DH of all-time, Martinez made up for his nonexistent defensive value by flat-out raking for 18 seasons. He was a career .312/.418/.515 hitter with two batting titles and was arguably the best pure hitter for the excellent late 90's, early 2000 Mariner teams (teams that had Griffey, Rodriguez, and Buhner). Although he was not a huge home run hitter (309 career HR), he hit plenty of doubles (514) and his career OPS+ of 147 is the same as Willie McCovey, Mike Schmidt, and Willie Stargell. In regards to the whole "DH not being a position argument, I view it the same way I view closers. It is a specialized position and one that requires an immense talent to be Hall-worthy. Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe, brought up an excellent example to this argument with Mariano Rivera. Pretty much he said it was very possible Rivera would never have the career he has had if he were a starter. I feel the same is true for Martinez, but like Rivera, his excellence is too much for him not to be in Cooperstown.

Mike Piazza: How does a 62nd round player become a Hall of Famer? Mike Piazza did just that on his way to becoming the greatest hitting catcher of all-time. The all-time catching leader in home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS+, Piazza's bat clearly is among the elite for those to wear the tools of ignorance. His peak ranks third all-time among catchers (only behind Gary Carter and Johnny Bench), notwithstanding his defensive shortcomings. Although he always face steroid whispers due to some gnarly back acne, these allegations lack any tangible documentation and really are just whispers. Although some voters will, I think it is extremely unfair to play a guessing game on who used. With that said, Piazza's bat is worthy for me for Cooperstown immortality.

Tim Raines: The second-greatest leadoff hitter of all-time, it baffles me how Raines has failed to get any respect from the voters. With Raines, the conversation has to start with his speed. He stole 808 bases (fifth most all-time) while having the highest success rate of that top five*. He had over 1500 runs scored while playing much of his career with hapless Expos teams and was 100 baserunning runs above average according to Fangraphs' Ultimate Base Running statistic (a total only surpassed by Henderson). His 123 OPS+ and .294/.385/.425 slash is right in line with Hall contemporary Tony Gwynn, even topping Gwynn in times on base, a number which surprises most considering Raines is 536 hits behind "Mr. Padre." According to Jaffe, Raines was the eighth greatest left fielder of all-time while compiling the position's ninth greatest peak; a peak in which Raines' WAR totals were only surpassed by Wade Boggs, Henderson, and Cal Ripken. Although he might not compare well to Henderson, it is not a slight on Raines one bit and his Hall of Fame worthy career is definitely deserving of Cooperstown glory.

Curt Schilling: For starting pitchers, the Hall of Fame has long been exclusive to those lucky enough to have won 300 games in their career. Prior to Bert Blyleven's induction two years ago, it was not since 1991 that a pitcher with fewer than 300 victories claimed enough votes to garner induction (Fergie Jenkins, 284 wins). With the days of specialized bullpens now firmly in place, starting pitchers just are not going to accrue the big time wins numbers as seen from past generations. Although Schilling's 216 win total may be viewed as low, that should not be held against him, especially considering the fact that pitcher wins are a poor judgment of a player's talent level. All else considered, I feel Schilling's case is an easy one to make. He has 3,116 K's (15th all-time), has a higher ERA+ than HOFers Juan Marichal and Bob Feller (Schilling's 127 compared to Marichal's 123 and Feller's 122), and the best strikeout to walk ratio of all-time (4.4 K/BB). Without even mentioning his postseason dominance (11-2, 2.23 ERA, 4.8 K/BB, 2001 WS MVP, and ace on 2004 Red Sox team), Schilling is a fairly obvious Hall of Fame selection in my book.

Alan Trammell: Just last year, Barry Larkin received 86% of the vote and gained induction into the Hall of Fame. However, Alan Trammell, a player with similar numbers, is on the ballot for his twelfth year, never receiving more than 37% of the vote. Trammell, along with double play mate Lou Whitaker, was the backbone of the successful Tigers teams of the 80's and with extremely steady play at arguably the most vital position on the field. Trammell ranks as the eleventh greatest shortstop of all-time going by JAWS, ahead of Hall of Famers Barry Larkin, Joe Cronin, and Pee Wee Reese. Trammell finished his career with a relatively unimpressive .285/.352/.415 slash line and 185 home runs, but played much of his career in unfriendly Tiger Stadium and missed out on the offensive surge seen from the Steroid Era. Factor in Trammell's excellent defense (4 Gold Gloves, 22.0 dWAR, +81 runs above average) and his case looks all the more impressive. To further cement his case, Trammell shined during his postseason experiences (11 games) with a .333/.404/.588 line with 3 home runs and 11 RBI, claiming WS MVP honors for the '84 series. To those that do not think Trammell was enough of a "standout" player to be Hall-worthy, Trammell had four seasons in which he topped 6.0 WAR, including one eight win season that should have won him the 1987 MVP over George Bell. All things considered, Trammell's overall body of work is right in line with his Hall of Fame peers and should have gotten him in Cooperstown 12 years ago.

            Tomorrow, I will post a list of players that just did not make my list for various reasons, with a brief explanation regarding each of their candidacies and why they would fall short in my mind. Expect to see Jack Morris, Sammy Sosa, Larry Walker, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, and Kenny Lofton on that list. 

           Once again, feel free to post any comments in the comment section or contact me at [email protected]

        This morning brought about the news that former all-star Nick Swisher would be returning to his adopted home state as a member of the Cleveland Indians. Swisher's deal with the Indians is said to be a four year pact at $56 million, with an fifth year option at $14 million. Born right on the West Virginia/Ohio border in Parkersburg, WV, Swisher went on to stardom at The Ohio State University and was a popularized as the first selection in the 2002 Athletics' "Moneyball" draft. Following his tenures with the A's and White Sox, Swisher went on to have some of his best seasons as a member of the Yankees, including a 2010 campaign that made him a first time All-Star. Now, after several productive seasons in the limelight of New York, Swisher will be taking his talents to the much more reserved city of Cleveland.

            Swisher undoubtedly has an infectious passion for the game and a personality seemingly made for New York. Although Cleveland will certainly provide a different atmosphere than the Big Apple, for now, we will just focus on the tangible aspects of Swisher's game. With the exception of his poor 2008 season with the White Sox, Swisher has been a model of consistency. Excluding his rookie season and that aforementioned '08 campaign, Swisher has had at least a 22 home runs (never more than 29), a 120 OPS+ (never higher than 129), and a .359 OBP (never higher than .381) . This remarkable steadiness displayed by Swisher gives a good barometer of what his production should look like in the coming seasons, even though his numbers should expect a decline from leaving Yankee Stadium's short RF porch. Coincidentally or not, Swisher had his best season (career high 3.5 WAR) this past year with a 126 OPS+, 24 home runs, 93 RBI, and a .272/.364/.473 triple slash line. On the other side of the ball, Swisher is presumed to play RF, after incumbent Shin-Soo Choo was traded to the Reds last week. Swisher spent most of last season in the Bronx as the starting RF and put up positive Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) numbers and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). These numbers are not one year flukes either, because Swisher's defensive ratings have hovered around average (0 runs saved/above average) for much of his career. Additionally, Swisher has seen sporadic time at first base and his defensive ratings (career 2 DRS, .994 fielding %) suggest he could play could be solid defensively if he loses some of his outfield range. All told, Swisher's consistency, positional versatility and offensive abilities make this contract a reasonable one for the Indians. 

            One further note in regards to Swisher's on-field performance has been his production, or lack there of, in the postseason. A career .169 hitter with 46 K's, Swisher's playoff ineptitude reached its peak this past postseason. In eight games, Swisher batted .167, struck out 10 times, and had just two runs batted in. This caused Swisher to be booed repeatedly by the Yankee faithful, foreshadowing Swisher's final days in pinstripes. Additionally, although there is not a huge sample size, his 46 games and 181 plate appearances are enough to say that Swisher has just flat out under-produced in October. Is it fair to judge a player by a couple of games after producing for six months? I would argue no, but for some, playoff performances carry extra weight in determining a player's abilities; this despite the fact that that player might have been the reason for the team making the playoffs in the first place. Regardless, Swisher's much publicized postseason struggles clearly did not sway the Indians into committing to him for the next four seasons.

            Now that we know Swisher the player, what does this signing mean for the Indians? In my opinion, as good as Swisher is, it is a move that does not make much sense from a organizational standpoint. First off, Swisher essentially replaces Choo (3.5 WAR for Swisher, 3.1 WAR for Choo) and could even be a downgrade if Swisher's bat slows from age and fails to transition for homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. If the Indians were a 68 win team with Choo, why should the team with Swisher's arrival be any different? As I said with the Myers-Shields swap, it does not pay to be mediocre. I do not comprehend when teams make these irresponsible decisions when resources could be more effectively allocated, such as filling a need rather than adding a want. For instance, the $56 million spent on Swisher could have landed Edwin Jackson, who had just signed a 4 year, $52 million deal with the Cubs. While the Tribe's offense was around league average, the Indian's pitching staff was absolutely abysmal, having the worst ERA, ERA+, and WHIP in the American League. Signing Jackson could have definitely improved a staff as bad as this, providing invaluable innings instead of throwing the likes of Josh Tomlin (6.36 ERA) and Jeanmar Gomez (5.96 ERA) every fifth day. In addition, the Indians farm system lacks much talent other than stud shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Trevor Bauer; barring a huge influx of talent, the Indians should not see much in the ways of winnings for several more seasons.  Thus, by the time Swisher's contract is complete, what will the Tribe have to show for it? Perhaps some added attendance from seeing a home-state kid in the purple and red, but in terms of wins and losses, it more than likely that it will be much of the same. Simply put, this financially ties up a team that just will not be competing in the near future. Once again, Swisher is a very good player and very much worthy of his newly minted  contract. However, this poor allocation of resources is just another reminder of why the Indians are the Indians.  


BY: AIDAN FLYNN

            The Blue Jays added to their already impressive offseason haul by trading for the reigning National League Cy Young winner, R.A. Dickey. This blockbuster sent Dickey, his personal knuckleball catcher, Josh Thole, and minor leaguer Mike Nickeas for Jay's top prospect Travis d'Arnaud, catcher John Buck, minor league starter Noah Syndergaard, and minor league outfielder Wuilmer Becerra. In addition to his 2013 bargain of a salary ($5 million), Dickey signed a two year, $24 million extension that will keep him in Toronto till 2015, his age 40 season.

            Contrary to popular belief, R.A. Dickey has emerged as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball over the past several seasons. Although 2012 was clearly his best season (career bests in W, ERA, IP, BB/9, K/9, and ERA+), Dickey has consistently been a well above average pitcher during his tenure with the Mets. For nonbelievers, let's play a little game with two sets of numbers compiled over the past three seasons; one belongs to Dickey and the other belongs to an "elite" starting pitcher:

Pitcher 1: 2.95 ERA, 616.2 Innings, 129 ERA+, 2.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 12.1 WAR

Pitcher 2: 2.93 ERA, 644 Innings,  130 ERA+, 2.8 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 13.2 WAR

Clearly, these pitchers are pretty similar except for  the difference in strikeouts; however, their repertoires could not be any different. One survives with the impulsive and unpredictable nature of the knuckleball and the other dominates with a mid-90's heat and sharp, near untouchable, slider. Pitcher 1 is R.A. Dickey. Pitcher 2 is his American League counterpart for the Cy Young, David Price. Price gains more acclaim due to his first overall pick pedigree and talented fastball, but Dickey has been just as successful over the past three seasons. Dickey is not some one-hit wonder or guy that got lucky for one season. He is a legitimate ace and should be in the discussion for among the top ten pitchers in baseball. Despite Dickey's advanced age, knuckleballers have shown the normal laws of pitching aging do not apply to their limited fraternity. Seen from the likes of Tim Wakefield (pitched till 44), Phil Niekro (48), Hoyt Wilhelm (49, albeit as a reliever), pitching well into your 40's as a knuckleballer is far from uncharted territory. In fact, many of these pitchers had remarkable success in the later stages of their career. Dickey adds a legitimate #1 starter to a team that had a hard time just getting innings from their starters, and in my opinion, puts their potential rotation as the best in the AL East.

            Even though the Mets are losing a 20 game winner, that is not to say the Mets did poorly in this trade.  In fact, they added a serious influx of talent that should vastly improve their team in the upcoming years. The centerpiece of this trade is 23 year old catcher, Travis d'Arnaud (pronounced dar-no), who is coming off a superb season in triple-A. This past season he hit .333/.380/.595 with 16 home runs in hitter-paradise Las Vegas. Although highly regarded for his offensive talents, d'Arnaud also possesses a strong arm and is rapidly improving behind the plate with a chance to be a league average defender. One possible cause for concern, however, was his extreme BABIP in AAA (.374) which could have portrayed his numbers being better than advertised. Additionally, his season was cut short after suffering a torn PCL in his left knee and has faced injury concerns in the past. However, it seems as though d'Arnaud is completely healed with a chance to be the Met's Opening Day catcher. Even with his injury and minor league transition concerns, d'Arnaud's special bat from behind the plate gives him the potential to be an annual all-star talent.

            The other big piece heading to Queens is gifted prep right hander, Noah Syndergaard.  Syndergaard dominated in high-A Lansing with a 2.60 ERA, a 2.7 walks per nine rate, and a sterling 10.6 K/9. Syndergaard possesses a sinking fastball that routinely sits in the mid to upper 90's and features a plus curveball as well. Undoubtedly, Syndergaard is a talented arm, but remains years away from reaching his potential and comes with the inherent risk of being a minor league pitching prospect. If everything clicks, Syndergaard could be a strong number two starter, with occasional flashes of brilliance with his dominant arsenal.

First Impressions:

Winners: Blue Jays, Mets

            The Blue Jays added a starter that further legitimizes their chances as an American League contender. In addition to the overall benefit of adding a CY winner, the Jays are capitalizing on a rare window of opportunity in the AL East, with the aging of the Yankees, the incompetence of the Red Sox, and the questions surrounding both the Rays and Orioles. Also, Dickey is as safe a bet for a 38 year old due to his repertoire that should keep him successful to the end of his contract. The collective improvements to the team this offseason makes the Jays a real contender for the American League pennant. 

            The Mets, although not as far away as some may think, added serious talent to a system devoid of quality position prospects. D'Arnaud is deservedly one of the best catching prospects in the minors, and his complete package is just so rare nowadays behind the plate. Furthermore, Syndergaard represents another potential stud in the rotation (to go along with a potentially scary rotation of Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, and Jon Niese). Despite the fact that it will take some time for him to get there, his talent alone is worth the gamble for a team that would not have had much of a purpose for a 38 year old knuckleballer.

Explanation:   

            One week ago, I criticized the Royals for trading prospects in exchange for an above average starter, all in the name of "going for it." Now, I'm praising the Jays for doing the same thing? Call me a hypocrite if you like, but there are several key differences between this trade and the Shields one. For one, the Jays are just much closer to reaching their goal of the postseason than the Royals. Just look at the rotations, even without any numbers, and see which you would have more confidence in:

Royals: James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis

Blue Jays: R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero

Personally, it is not even close, as I am way in favor of the Jays' rotation. Even the offenses do not compare as seen in last year's numbers alone. Toronto's offense rated at about average while KC's was among the league's worst. Last I checked, the Royals did not do anything to improve in this regard while the Blue Jays added Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, and Emilio Bonifacio. That is also without mentioning a healthy Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie. Second, although all prospects carry an inherent risk, to me Myers' unblemished injury history and more legitimate minor league numbers give me more confidence in his future success than d'Arnaud. Mortgaging the future for a mediocre present is not how ballclubs should be run. If the Royals were to pull off a trade to further legitimize their playoff chances, that might change my opinion of the Shields-Myers swap. But for now, that trade was poorly executed, and this trade exemplified how to build a club up from rags to riches. 

BY: AIDAN FLYNN

            The hot corner has long been one of the least talented positions in the history of Major League Baseball. For instance, third base is the most underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame, with only 14 inducted members (catcher is has the second least amount with only 17 HoF members). However, today's game showcases some of the game's best at third base. A position long-defined by power (Mike Schmidt) and defense (Brooks Robinson), many of the game's best flash abilities on both sides of the ball. In the minors, this is especially true with players like Anthony Rendon and Kaleb Cowart, whose multi-dimensional skills make the future for third base quite promising. Even if these talented youngsters do not make it in the majors, third base should be in good hands with players like our number five ranked third baseman...

5. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres

            The sweet swinging San Diegan enjoyed the breakout campaign of the summer, capturing a silver slugger, gold glove, and finished 5th in the National League MVP voting. Prior to this year, Headley was a solid player who would showed the ability to hit for average, get on base, and play solid defense at the hot corner. What fueled his 2012 breakthrough was the drastic increase in power. Headley hit 31 home runs, saw his isolated power increase 100 points, and drove in a league leading 115 runs. What makes this emergence even more remarkable was the fact that Headley played in one of the most extreme pitcher’s parks (PETCO Park). On defense, Headley may not have deserved the Gold Glove awarded to him this past season, but still remains a strong fielder. He was six runs above average according to Ultimate Zone Rating and had the second highest fielding percentage among third baseman. Headley possesses a good amount of tools that allow him to be a threat on both sides of the ball. The only real question is what Headley will show up in 2013? Will he be the player that only hit 4 home runs in 2011 or the one that drove in 116 with 31 home runs in 2012? That remains to be seen and although it will be hard for Headley to repeat his successful 2012, Headley’s offensive improvements should be enough to make him a 4-5 win player.

4. Evan Longoria , Tampa Bay Rays

            Despite missing over 80 games this past season, Longoria remains one of the best in the game. If healthy, I view Longoria as the preeminent third baseman and one of the best players in baseball. Offensively, there is little Longoria cannot do. He hits for solid contact (.289 AVG in 2012, .276 for career), gets on base at an above average clip (.369 OBP in 2012, .361 for career), and hits for good power as well (.527 SLG in 2012, .516 for career). Additionally, like Headley, Longoria plays half of his games in a pitcher's park, which make his numbers look even more impressive. However, Longoria's on-field talents do not stop there as he is a justifiable two time Gold Glove winner (as compared to those that win Gold Gloves with their bat) and excellent defender. He has averaged 14.4 defensive runs saved per year and has consistently been among the league leaders in fielding chances at the hot corner. Furthermore, even though Longoria is not a characteristic "burner" on the base paths, he is an above average base runner according to the Ultimate Base Running statistic (career +9 runs above average). There is little doubt that Longoria is an extremely talented ballplayer but the question with him remains his health. He has missed parts of every season with various injuries and ailments and should be a major concern for a player locked up for $136 million through the 2020 season. However, for the time being, Longoria is one of the best at his position and if healthy, could very well be a 5-6+ win player.

3. Adrian Beltre , Texas Rangers

            Beginning here with Beltre, the next three decisions were extremely difficult, as each player has various strengths and weaknesses. With Beltre, he lacks any obvious weaknesses and is deservedly one of the best third baseman in the game. Defensively, Beltre is one of the best in the game with four career Gold Gloves and double-digit defensive runs saved in every season except for 2005 and 2007 (and in both of those seasons, Beltre still produced above average DRS ratings). Undoubtedly, whether from the eye test or defensive metrics, Beltre is lauded for his defensive prowess. Offensively, believe it or not, is where Beltre falls slightly behind his hot corner counterparts. The main reason for this comes down to his worse on-base skills and home-ballpark aid. This is not to say Beltre is a poor hitter by any means; he rates as one of the best in baseball as exemplified by his .321/.359/.561, 36 HR, and 102 RBI 2012 campaign. But when his ballpark is factored in, his numbers come out slightly worse than his competitors. Additionally, it should be noted that Beltre is the oldest player on this top five list (34) and is most likely to experience age-related decline in the coming years. Nevertheless, Beltre should be a good bet to be a 6+ win player, just as he has been over the past three seasons.

2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

            Before the torches and pitchforks are raised, what separated the reigning AL MVP from being the top third basemen in the game is his defensive deficiencies. Although the fact that Cabrera moved to third base was admirable, frankly, Cabrera just wasn't very good defensively. He was a -4 run defender going by defensive runs saved and was ten runs below average according to Ultimate Zone Rating. As good as Cabrera was with the bat, his defensive deficiencies definitely cut into some of his value at the hot corner and justify his ranking as the game's second best third basemen (still high praise, by the way).  Offensively, there is not much to say except that Cabrera was a beast with the bat in his hands. Obviously, he won the first Triple Crown since 1967, but his offensive success does not stop with those three statistics. He lead the league in OPS, total bases, runs created, and extra base hits. Additionally, he was third overall in OPS+ (165, which I might add was behind Mike Trout's) and lead the AL in slugging percentage (.606). Overall, Cabrera's one sided-game, as good as it is, just is not enough for the honor of being the best third baseman. Regardless, Cabrera is one of the most consistent offensive performers of our generation and in my mind a slam dunk Hall of Famer barring a complete disaster to the rest of his career. It is very reasonable to see Cabrera being a 6-6.5 win player in 2013.

1. David Wright, New York Mets

            Nowadays, Mr. Met has everything going for him. Owner of a brand-new $138 million contract, Wright stands alone on top of our third base rankings. Wright matches both the offensive abilities of Miguel Cabrera and defensive talents of Adrian Beltre. Defensively, Wright had 16 runs saved and a career low 10 errors in 155 games at the hot corner. Additionally, he had the second highest dWAR total (2.1) for a third baseman in 2012 and was 15 runs above average going by Ultimate Zone Rating. Offensively, Wright may not match Cabrera's exploits in the batter's box, but is no slouch himself. He had a 143 OPS+, .302/.391/.492 triple slash line with 21 HRs and 93 RBI. In addition, he accomplished this in a pitchers park that especially suppresses HR numbers and for the lowly 69-93 Mets. Wright will still be in his prime for the 2013 season (30 years old on Opening Day) and should remain one of the most productive players in the game. It would not be unthinkable for Wright and his multi-faceted game to again be around his 2012 WAR of 6.7 and be a 6+ win player next season.  

Honorable Mention:


Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers
Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays


BY: AIDAN FLYNN

         Late Sunday night, the Rays and Royals agreed on a blockbuster trade that would send RHP James Shields, RHP Wade Davis, and a PTBNL (Player To Be Named Later) to Kansas City in exchange for BTP's 3rd overall prospect, OF Wil Myers, along with RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Mike Montgomery, and 3B Patrick Leonard. Every player going to the Royals has a minimum of six years of team control (at or around major league minimum) while Shields is expected to make $21 million for the next two years and Davis is expected to make 32.6 over the next five. For those that saw my continuous discussions with NJIT's own Robbie McClellan , you already know my feelings on this trade. For those that did not observe the aforementioned debate, needless to say I think that the Rays came out as the clear victors.

            In 2012, the Kansas City Royals finished 16 games behind the division leading Tigers with an overall record of 72-90. Collectively, the pitching staff managed to be near the bottom of many statistical categories including walks, hits, and runs allowed. The lowest ERA for a full time member of the rotation belonged to right-hander Luis Mendoza with an unsightly 4.23 ERA. There is no doubt at all that the Royals were in desperate need of pitching. They somewhat alleviated this problem by acquiring Ervin Santana from the Angels and resigning Jeremy Guthrie. I say somewhat because Guthrie and Santana own career ERA+ of 103 and 97, respectively. They basically are league average pitchers and only serve as modest improvements to last year's staff. Now, the Royals are acquiring a very solid pitcher in James Shields. Despite not being a true ace, as some proclaim, Shields still offers a ton of innings (over 200 innings every year since rookie season), strikes batters out (8.4 K/9 last three seasons), and limits free passes (career 2.1 BB/9).
         
           In addition, one would think he is as close to a sure bet to take the mound every fifth day, with his only injury history being a couple of leg contusions from a batted ball. But like prospects, pitchers are no sure thing either. Shields entered 2012 as one of 26 pitchers to have thrown 600 or more innings from 2009-2011. Some pitchers in that group include Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, and Ricky Romero. One year later, these "innings eaters" have certainly lost some of their luster. Halladay, Haren, and Carpenter all spent time on the DL while Lincecum, Lester, and Romero all suffered the worst seasons of their careers. While Shields is a very good pitcher and should immediately fill the void of a frontline starter, he cannot make up for the ineptitude for the rest of the starting rotation and team. Another quip on Shields is his disconcerting home/road splits. While pitching in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, Shields has pitched to the tune of a 4.54 ERA, .91 HR/9, and 1.29 WHIP. Away from the Trop, Shields becomes a much different pitcher. Owning 4.54 ERA, 1.40 HR/9, and 1.29 WHIP on the road, we would be remiss to say that Shields is as a good as his numbers suggest. This is not to discredit Shields as an excellent major league pitcher, but this just further stresses the fact that the Royals overpaid for a guy who really is more good than great.

            The other pitcher heading to America's heartland is Wade Davis. Davis spent all of 2012 as a reliever after spending his whole career as a starter.  As usually expected with starter to reliever transitions, Davis enjoyed his best season to date, with a 157 ERA+, 11.1 K/9 and 2.43 ERA. During his years as a starter, Davis had a 4.22 ERA, 92 ERA+, 5.9 K/9. As a reliever, Davis was more than solid and further cemented in my mind what role he should be fulfilling. Davis going to the rotation for the Royals is just going to stick them with another league average starter to complement their other league average starters.

            As for the Rays haul, I suppose your view on the trade depends on your view of crown jewel prospect, Wil Myers. My opinion of him is pretty favorable, as I had him as the third best prospect in baseball and think his bat has a chance to be pretty special. For those that do not know, Myers was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year, which has had an extreme amount of success in predicting future big league stardom among position players:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout

            Pretty good company, eh? In addition to that, Myers is the first 21 yr old to hit 37 HRs in the high minors (AA and AAA) since 1963. He had a triple slash of .314/.387/.600 while playing against much older competition. Even the odds are on his side, as 61% of top twenty position player prospects succeed in the majors. For now, even just throw out the star potential for Myers and imagine if he was a replacement level player (0.0 WAR). Incumbent right fielder for the Royals is Jeff Francoeur, who had an all-time historically bad season with -2.7 WAR. Just by inserting the major league ready Myers into the Opening day lineup, it would be fairly reasonable to see a 3+ swing in the standings. Some even believe that marching Francoeur on the field instead of Myers could make acquiring Shields a complete wash. This trade really just represents a "rob Peter to pay Paul" scenario where the Royals are filling of position of need by stealing from another positional need. There's a reason the Royals have not made the playoffs in nearly 30 years and it has much more to do with this front office's ineptitude than failing prospects. The money now allotted to Shields ($21 million over 2 years) could have been used to sign a guy like Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson while still being able to put Myers in RF. This could have solved both problems at hand rather than creating a problem to fix a problem. This is just not a smart baseball decision and frankly just is not common sense.

            In addition to Myers, the Rays acquired Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard. Odorizzi spent time most of the minors in double A and triple A and projects as a solid middle of the rotation piece with good control despite his mediocre stuff. He was ranked as #31 in my prospect countdown. Montgomery represents a bit of a lottery ticket as he completely fell of the rails in 2012, posting a hideous 6.07 ERA and 5-12 record. His stuff is quite good for a lefty, with a plus fastball and an elite changeup but has been killed for his complete lack of control and command. In my opinion, the most realistic scenario for Montgomery is as a situational lefty to neutralize the left-handed opposition. Leonard posted solid numbers in rookie ball with a .251/.340/.494 triple slash and flashed polished defense at the hot corner. He remains a long ways away from reaching his potential, but has a ceiling of an above average third basemen.

First Impressions:

Winner: Rays. Rays dealt from a position of strength and while they certainly will feel the loss of Shields, their talented arms should minimize this shortfall. Additionally, the Rays can use the money saved from Shields and reinvest it into improving the club. Lastly, the Rays added four quality minor league talents with one having a legitimate shot a major league stardom. Even if Myers doesn't reach his potential, just becoming a solid major leaguer should push this trade in favor of the Rays

Loser: Royals. Royals traded a major haul of talent for a pitcher that will minimally improve the team as a whole. Shields is a very good pitcher and should help the Royals improve for 2013. However, for a team with a ton of other needs, Shields alone is not going to make up a 20 win swing in the standings and make the Royals a contender. If the Royals were one good starting pitcher away from contending, this trade could be justified. But the current circumstances of the team does not justify mortgaging away the future success for 2013 mediocrity.

 By: Aidan Flynn